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PDPM Audit Optimization Group

Revenue Risk Assessment

Know your number before you commit to a relationship.

One assessment quantifies exactly how much revenue is structurally at risk, where it's coming from, and how your facility compares to state peers and active federal audit targets — before you sign up for anything ongoing.

90%
internal confidence interval on total exposure — not a licensed actuarial opinion
7
PEPPER target areas benchmarked against your actual state peers
2
active OIG Work Plan categories cross-referenced against your gaps

What you get

Eight analytical layers, built from CMS public data and your facility's own records — not a generic checklist with a price tag attached.

EXPOSURE

Total estimated exposure with an internal confidence interval

A point estimate plus an internal 90% interval around that estimate, so you see both the size of the exposure and how certain the model is — not a licensed actuarial opinion or a published statistical CI.

BENCHMARKING

Facility-wide risk score vs. your actual state peers

Built from PEPPER data — the same percentile benchmarking CMS's own contractors use — across therapy utilization, length of stay, readmissions, NTA frequency, and PDPM assessment patterns.

GAP DETECTION

PDPM-weighted gaps, not flat dollar counts

A missing Section GG score isn't valued the same as a missing diet order. Each gap type carries a PDPM Impact Multiplier, because one missed data point can shift a resident's entire classification for the full payment period.

INVISIBLE LOSS

The specialist gap category most audits skip

A dedicated breakout for podiatry, dentistry, and optometry consults — referral-based orders that rarely flow through your primary physician queue, and consistently your highest-yield gap category.

AUDIT RISK

Cross-referenced against CMS's active OIG Work Plan

Every gap category is checked by name against currently published federal audit targets, so you know which exposures carry materially higher real-world risk right now — not generically.

DYNAMIC SCORING

A score that's actually yours, not a template

Risk weighting adjusts to your own payer mix and OIG target matches. Two facilities with identical dollar gaps can land at different risk scores depending on their census and audit-target profile.

STRUCTURAL GAP

Case-mix revenue gap, isolated from one-off errors

If your CMI runs below the state average, every Part A day is paid below what your resident acuity justifies — a recurring quarterly loss, calculated separately from individual documentation gaps.

ADD-ON

Optional actuarial-informed internal estimate

A credibility-weighted expected-loss estimate informed by actuarial methods — loss history, exposure base, frequency/severity trend, blended against peer/class averages. This is an internal analytical estimate, not a licensed actuarial opinion.

What the summary dashboard looks like

Synthetic illustration — not a real facility result

Total revenue at risk (point est.) · synthetic
$56,784 / qtr
Facility risk score · synthetic
62 / 100
Active OIG target matches · synthetic
2 categories

Synthetic illustration for a hypothetical 100-bed, 3-Star facility. Your dashboard, if purchased, reflects your facility’s own data. These figures are not a performance guarantee.

The actuarial-informed layer

Most SNF compliance reviews stop at documentation gaps. This optional add-on goes further as an internal estimate — not a licensed actuarial opinion.

Section D — credibility-weighted internal estimate

Informed by methods actuaries use to reserve for a facility

Most of this data doesn't exist in a typical SNF compliance audit — sourcing it is itself a differentiator. We request and structure:

  • 5–10 year claims and loss-run history (professional & general liability, workers' comp)
  • Claims development by accident/report year, with frequency and severity trend analysis
  • Bühlmann credibility blending — your facility's own experience weighted against peer/class averages, the standard actuarial method for limited facility-specific data
  • Financial strength indicators — current ratio, days cash on hand, operating margin, debt service coverage

How it works

1

Data request

We send a structured intake covering CMS public data, facility records, and (if requested) loss history. Most items are pulled from sources you already have.

2

Benchmarking

Your numbers are run against state PEPPER percentiles, OIG Work Plan targets, and peer facility exposure data.

3

Dynamic scoring

Risk weights adjust to your specific payer mix and audit-target profile — not a generic template score.

4

Findings, privately

Delivered only to you, with a clear path to fix what's found before anyone else asks.

Pricing

One-time assessment, priced by certified bed count — same tiers as RevOptix1 and our expert focus tracks.

Estimate your assessment

Slide to your certified bed count — your one-time price updates instantly.

100 certified beds

76–150 beds

$2,500

one-time assessment

Request your assessment →

All tiers

Under 75 beds
$1,500
one-time
Request
151–200 beds
$3,500
one-time
Request
201+ beds
$4,500
one-time
Request
Enterprise
$5,000
one-time · multi-facility
Request

Optional actuarial-informed internal estimate (Section D) available as an add-on — scope and pricing confirmed during intake based on data availability. Educational service — not legal, financial, or actuarial advice; not a substitute for a licensed actuary’s formal opinion. A BAA alone does not constitute complete HIPAA compliance.

Methods, data vintage, and limitations

The assessment is an internal analytical estimate. It is not a licensed actuarial opinion, audit conclusion, or CMS finding.

DATA

Population and vintage

Inputs typically include CMS public files (PEPPER, OIG Work Plan categories current at intake), facility-supplied claims/MDS extracts, and optional loss-run history. Exact vintage is stated on the delivered report because public files update on CMS/OIG calendars.

MODEL

Estimation and confidence interval

Exposure is estimated from PDPM-weighted documentation-gap categories plus, where available, case-mix vs state-peer gaps. The “90% confidence interval” is an internal interval around that estimate (normal approximation on blended category totals unless the report specifies another method). It is not a frequentist clinical-trial CI and is not independently validated as a published statistical model.

LIMITS

What this is not

Not a guarantee of recoupment, recovery, survey outcome, or insurance pricing. PEPPER peer comparisons depend on the latest available CMS release for the facility’s state. OIG Work Plan matches use publicly listed categories at the time of analysis. No qualified actuary is identified as responsible for the public dashboard illustration.

VALIDATION

Validation status

The $56,784 / 62 / 2-category dashboard on this page is a synthetic illustration. Live assessments are not a SOC 2 report, penetration-test certificate, or HIPAA certification. Customers remain responsible for their own compliance program.